Chris;

When I originally evaluated a group of Don's predictions I used a program for probability which reads a file of quakes from 1997-2001.

I got results which showed Don to be doing much better than chance.

Then as a result of heavy fire from another board I redid the analysis using another catalog and a different timespan which resulted in a below chance answer.

Finally I ran it with the new catalog but the same timespan as before and got similar high results.

This shows that the high results are due to the seismicity of that time. The probabilities were too high because every window was full of aftershocks.

Roger