My brain is full, can I be excused? It is late here and I'll re-read Roger's and Don's posts tomorrow or Saturday OK: First: yes, Roger, that is what you need to say for someone to know what you were doing. What I say below applies partly to a post on this page, but maybe more to evaluations that you might do professionally...for SCEC for example. The one thing that you may not have explained well enough is the z-binomial technique....but since you do not use it in the case of Don, it is OK to not explain it. You did describe pretty well the method of Alan Jones, but, if that method is published, you would want to reference it, in case someone wanted to know more. I did not 100% follow everything but that is my problem this time, not yours...I don't understand math very well (despite 8 college courses in it), and have limited exposure to statistics.

But...you might want to explain what a standard deviation of 4.299 means. What would it be from a random series of predictions?

As for the comment of Don...that confuses me. He seems to be talking about something different. You are evaluating predictions that have been made, and I don't see what future predictions or technique for the prediction have to do with this.
Chris