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Posted by John Vidale on March 03, 2006 at 23:56:40:

Donuts are out of fashion, although I did see an article in this month's BSSA (February):
Seismic Quiescence before the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Mw 7.6 Earthquake
by Yih-Min Wu and Ling-Yun Chiao.

The favorite model of the moment is ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) + steady background seismicity, with Bufe-Varnes accelerating seismicity before mainshocks a not-so-close second.