Canie: Sorry to hear about the mess. I hope it doesn't happen to you again.

I found a copy of my last posting - in case anyone would like to keep this discussion going....

Cal Wrote:

"As a resident at Lake Tahoe I can relate to what that person is saying. There is a joke here...We call it "poverty with a view." The middle class is fading. Thus, for some people it may seem like poetic justice if a quake happened and then other folks may be in the same situation--homeless. "

I could go WAY off topic here about what in the world this means, but I won't. Well, only so far as to say that if I'm understanding this correctly, it could be more scary than an EQ.

Don, I think you're right. People hear what they want to hear about preparedness and predictions and just about anything else. I am tending to agree with John in that - so far - nothing is proving accurate or valuable. If you could only get to that final 1/3 of the equation, then maybe we'd have something going.

Can anyone here catalouge the absolute facts about any predictive model? Does anyone have a model that is accurate beyond chance? Cal, you mentioned the following:

"Recently, I made a prediction that a 6.0+ would hit near Japan by the 20th of Feb., on or offshore and close to Tokyo. I had a location, time, and it was "site specific." However, the quake was only a 5.0, hit 140 miles from Tokyo--thus I get no credit. "

Should you? Seems to me that a hit is "Tokyo. 6.0 on 20 Feb." and nothing else is right. How does a prediction like yours benefit anyone if it is so far off? Can't sell plane tickets like that.

I realize I may be sounding a little rude, and I really don't mean to be. I'm just wondering when some real science is going to be applied to the problem with results that are spot on accurate. Otherwise it doesn't seem to be helpful. The best way is to get ready.

So, realizing I may have missed lots of posts, is there someone that can get on the board and say "Here is my model and this is how it works" and let us see if its accurate or not? So far, all I've seen is "6.0 over Singapore" which turns into a 5.2 in Tokyo followed by a debate as to whether or not that was a hit!

Respectfully,

Russell

PS: Forgive my typing in advance because I'm sure it stinks.