Alan Jones had posted on this web site a few times in the past.

When I was posting my predictions over on sci.geo.earthquakes, he would take each prediction and run it through a program that he developed in order to calculate the probability of that prediction occurring by chance and would post that information. He would then monitor that prediction and then declare whether or not the prediction was successful or not. He would also calculate what percentile had been reached for all of the predictions to track whether or not the prediction methodology had reached the 95th percentile. That 95th percentile is a magic number that the scientific community seems to accept that shows that whatever is being measured has a good chance of having something to it. But then again, whatever is being measured may be getting extremely lucky meaning that whatever is being measured will be going thru even more rigourous testing.

Alan Jones was monitoring predictions posted to sci.geo.earthquakes by Bob Shannon and myself back in 1995 and 1996.

Dennis