Hi Barbara. The following is from Lynn Sykes.

“Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study.”

The part of the San Andreas fault they are talking about is in the Coachello Valley. There was a lot of concern about that area right after the Hector Mine quake in that there were a lot of quakes popping all around the area.

A major quake in that area would cause a lot of damage, but I have to wonder would the damage be the same if a large quake occurred in the LA area? Which would be worse. A M=7.5 in the Coachello Valley, or a M=6.9 under downtown LA?

Short-term prediction is the goal, but I have to wonder if it’s the right goal. There are times I really feel that the money could be better spent on preparing for the next major quake. That would be in the form of building for the largest quake that could occur in any given area. I suspect though that in some areas that could all but bankrupt a community. There are of course limits as to how well you can build. I don’t thing there is a building that one could build that would withstand a M=8.0+ quake. You might be able to keep it up long enough for the people inside to get out, but it might not be usable after the quake has done its thing. That would mean you would have to tear it down and start all over again. That would mean the cost of the new building would be substantially more then the original one.

I sometimes have to wonder that maybe we should as human beings learn that there are some things we can’t control and that earthquakes may be one of those things. Then again maybe we can control them. It’s just that we haven’t found the right formula yet. Take Care…Don in creepy town

http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/93/9/3732

• Lynn Sykes