Don...interesting..
OK, I took notes for youse guys so better post them...from Ross Stein..I assume this is all in the paper I linked to above so OK to post...In 1703 M.8.2 Genroku
1855 M7.2 Ansei Edo
1923 M7.9 Kanto

if you got one of these guys (33% in next 30 years) there could be 10,000 dead, 200,000 wounded, 850,000 collapsed structures, and $1 trillion in damage. Only 5% of people in Tokyo are insured for earthquake. Japan holds $700 billion in U.S treasuries...plus stocks and property...and would have to liquidate a lot of this to rebuild Tokyo. Tokyo and San Franciso both vulnerable to fire. Damage in Tokyo by fire will be dependent on time of day and on wind speed....There was also some stuff on a broken off piece of slab above the Pacific Plate and below the Phillipine Sea plate...that is associated with a lot of the seismicity...again...my notes on Ross Stein's talk....see the link from my post at the head of the thread...
Chris