Re: SCEC prediction efforts
Posted by Petra on January 23, 2006 at 12:25:16:

Chris,

Jordan presented the work of Keilis-Borok and showed graphs of his predictions, explained them and mentioned what the outcomes were. At that time KB still had two active predictions and both have now expired. I know one of them was failure. He has had an uncanny knack of selecting places and having his earthquakes show up just outside of his predicted zones. His selected area's are not like circles or squares or of some shape that one could identify, but remind one of drawing abstracts with black markers so one may have a straight edge on one side and a circle on the other. So he's not wrong in the sense of being somewhat in the right place and the time frames seem to be good as well. But for scientific protocol, he has a lot of misses.

Jordan said he was willing to look at anyones program whether one was a scientist or not as long as they presented an acceptable proposal. So what I would be looking to put on the table is something like this:

Magnitudes would be hits if they were over the minimum magnitude I set.
Within the time frame I set.
Within the radius of miles that I set.

If I fall outside of those parameters I will not have a hit and then I have judged myself by my program.

The only difference between my program and anyone else would be that it was based upon real time data versus mathematical programs I believe, but I could be wrong. There could be others who may be using instruments that haven't had their methods tested yet. They are out there for sure.

There's nothing mysterious about his program and it does not require that anyone has to do anything all that spectacular either.

Petra