Posted by Don in Hollister on December 22, 2005 at 12:38:10:
Hi Petra. You will feel it even if you’re 50 miles from home. My gut feeling says the quake is lot closer to occurring then many of us think, or want to believe. As David Schwartz has said. “We may have 1 or 2 or 3 years. We don’t have 10, 15, or 30 years. Do you remember what he said as he was scratching the dirt at the Rodgers Creek fault trace? “The quake could occur right now as were standing here.” It’s kind of hard to prove, but the activity in the area has increased starting around 2000. The quakes were seeing are the weak links in the chain and when all of the weak links have been broken that only leaves the main link that is keeping everything from moving. It will fail. It has to fail because it has failed in the past. The location of the next quake isn’t known exactly, but close enough for now. The same for the magnitude. It’s the “when” bit that isn’t known. It could be today, tomorrow, or next week, but it will occur. Of that there is no doubt. Take Care…Don in creepy town catalog=ANSS start_time=1898/01/01,00:00:00 end_time=2005/12/22,19:43:39 minimum_magnitude=4.0 maximum_magnitude=10 event_type=E delta=0 km to 60 km from (38.434,-122.705) Date Time Lat Lon Depth Mag Magt Nst Gap Clo RMS SRC Event ID ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1949/11/30 08:31:54.00 38.6200 -122.1300 4.00 ML BK š 1955/05/07 11:50:39.00 38.9300 -122.8700 4.60 ML BK š 1955/05/07 14:56:15.00 38.9300 -122.8700 4.20 ML BK š 1956/04/05 04:29:13.00 38.5300 -122.5200 4.40 ML BK 1956/04/05 04:29:32.00 38.5300 -122.5200 4.20 ML BK 1958/04/20 21:06:58.00 38.6200 -122.3500 4.00 ML BK 1959/12/16 02:28:42.00 38.5800 -122.3700 4.10 ML BK 1969/10/02 04:56:45.33 38.4963 -122.6638 0.07 5.27 Md 39 104 52 0.20 NC -1003132 1969/10/02 06:19:56.33 38.4515 -122.7522 4.16 5.22 Md 52 170 58 0.20 NC -1003135 1969/10/02 12:27:04.65 38.5085 -122.6872 0.02 4.52 Md 52 106 53 0.23 NC -1003137 1969/10/06 14:28:06.96 38.4753 -122.6987 4.50 4.28 Md 18 53 1 0.02 NC -1003160 1973/09/17 02:08:54.94 38.5910 -122.2713 8.33 4.42 Md 30 127 27 0.23 NC -1017126 1980/12/12 14:57:08.05 38.9455 -122.6815 2.40 4.03 Md 32 73 1 0.08 NC -1058048 1982/05/29 13:02:24.61 38.8010 -122.8222 2.29 4.65 Md 48 25 3 0.07 NC -1074871 1985/03/16 05:26:13.22 38.8872 -122.9933 15.47 4.10 Md 5 321 19 0.09 NC -1126652 1985/07/03 10:24:01.03 38.9325 -122.9712 5.00 4.25 Md 4 119 13 0.16 NC -1129446 1990/08/14 19:05:12.64 38.8247 -122.7922 3.03 4.08 Md 46 36 2 0.08 NC 20092005 1992/09/19 23:04:46.83 38.8598 -122.7915 4.16 4.30 Md 47 34 6 0.08 NC 316220 1994/01/17 14:46:11.98 38.8050 -122.4450 11.21 4.06 Md 69 101 0 0.16 NC 391405 1995/02/28 23:09:46.77 38.9307 -122.6243 5.73 4.00 Md 46 67 4 0.09 NC 30068952 1995/09/04 14:16:17.66 38.6832 -122.7428 7.69 4.46 Md 52 42 3 0.08 NC 30082729 1999/08/18 01:06:18.93 37.9073 -122.6865 6.81 4.98 ML 65 76 3 0.09 NC 21044694 1999/09/22 22:27:13.11 38.3950 -122.6342 9.79 4.20 ML 61 47 14 0.12 NC 21054737 2000/01/10 21:41:27.13 38.7565 -122.9147 6.82 4.28 ML 48 49 9 0.13 NC 21076620 2000/01/11 14:19:52.07 38.7680 -122.9137 6.81 4.34 ML 42 49 6 0.12 NC 21076750 2000/01/18 23:26:01.31 38.7515 -122.9135 7.65 4.22 ML 52 35 6 0.13 NC 21078341 2000/09/03 08:36:30.09 38.3788 -122.4127 10.12 5.17 ML 75 34 3 0.17 NC 21123384 2000/12/08 07:41:11.43 38.7818 -122.7667 4.06 4.15 ML 50 30 4 0.10 NC 21137862 2003/05/20 16:50:41.70 38.8012 -122.8032 0.62 4.05 Mw 55 35 1 0.09 NC 30225804 2003/05/25 07:09:33.67 38.4578 -122.6980 5.06 4.32 ML 68 52 2 0.17 NC 30225889 2003/07/30 04:50:06.37 38.6807 -122.9097 5.09 4.01 ML 41 44 9 0.10 NC 30226086 2003/08/03 12:00:52.75 38.7992 -122.7690 0.89 4.20 Mw 47 37 1 0.06 NC 30226108 2004/02/18 20:37:46.39 38.8338 -122.7680 1.88 4.40 Mw 53 42 1 0.09 NC 40153486 2004/12/27 10:36:22.97 38.7492 -122.7263 3.71 4.32 ML 46 26 3 0.08 NC 21430438 2005/05/08 08:43:55.35 38.3783 -122.1623 9.05 4.16 ML 111 63 6 0.17 NC 21455182 2005/05/09 22:37:39.05 38.7880 -122.7547 0.25 4.40 Mw 65 27 2 0.12 NC 21455621
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