Hi Glen,

Now don't beat up on yourself over this. You should keep some thoughts about a true professional who has his difficulties too. Dr. Vladimir Keilis-Borok has been taking his prediction program out for a trail run and some of the results are quite good. But most of them cannot be claims as hits.

He had a prediction for the North Coast for 7.2 earthquake and thought it was going to occur on the fault which streches out from Petrolia. A 7.2 did occur, but not nearly close enough. But we have to take it that his method of using places which have had prior large earthquakes, may ten years later do it again. I recall to that he had a prediction for an area off of Japan. Two quakes showed up the with correct magintude and in the correct time period, but they too were outside of his area. So it seems to me, just being a researcher in prediction matters, he is missing one element and if he had that he would do very well for himself.

My prediction for a quake in Parkfield has yet to materialize. I gave it a short window, which is not my usual way, but I thought this time I would work it that way. If it doesn't show up by midnight tonight, I won't be surprised either if it shows up afterwards. I do feel strongly it is going to happen.

So, do what you can. You'll get hits and misses; but you should not give up.

Petra