Canie,

Oops, by "contrarian" I did not mean in opposition to your view. There have been several aftershocks following the 7M, for example, and your comment is perfectly valid.

I just meant that I think the 7M (and others) is in itself a foreshock to another event coming within a few weeks.

Lately many small quakes (say 3M) have been followed by bigger ones (say 4M). Someone recently asked about those probabilities on EW and I think John answered that it is "self-similar" meaning that historically probabilties are about the same no matter what the magnitude.