Is Dr.G.Chouliaras spreading Snake Oil?
Posted by Dennis Gentry in Santa Clarita on June 04, 2000 at 17:29:48:

The good doctor writes:

On his last post Antonio Romino posted a prediction for Greece-Turkey on June
20-30 of M=3.8 with a 50% chance !
Well my friends this type of prediction deserves a 100% chance of being true in the
country with the highest seismicity in Europe (Greece) that produces a M=4 event
EVERY DAY !

Well, I looked at a rough set of coordinates for Greece and find that:
FILE CREATED: Sun Jun 4 18:03:11 2000
Geographic Grid Search Earthquakes= 693
Latitude: 43.000N - 36.000N
Longitude: 26.000E - 21.000E
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: Year: 1989 - 1999 Month: 01/Day: 01 Month: 12/Day: 31
Magnitude Range: 4.0 - 5.0

only 693 events in the M4 range occurred during a 10 year period or 1 every 5 1/4 days or about a 19% probability of occurring by chance.

The good doctor also writes:

and a magnitude 5 in Greece almost every month, so
statistically speaking his predictions are saying that "THE SUN WILL RISE
TOMMOROW" !!!!!

So looking at the data again we see:

FILE CREATED: Sun Jun 4 18:04:20 2000
Geographic Grid Search Earthquakes= 40
Latitude: 43.000N - 36.000N
Longitude: 26.000E - 21.000E
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: Year: 1989 - 1999 Month: 01/Day: 01 Month: 12/Day: 31
Magnitude Range: 5.0 - 8.0

only 40 M5 - M8 quakes had occurred over this same 10 year period or 1 every 91 days or roughly 3 months or about a 1% probability of occurring by chance.

Dennis