Re: Suggestions
Posted by Michael Tolchard on November 09, 2005 at 19:41:50:

>>1. So entire earth, entire year, any magnitude (basically everything under the sun) is acceptable?

Absolutely acceptable. Usefull? I really doubt it, but that is not for me to judge. The problem I have is that you want to draw the line between a reasonable and unreasonable prediction. That is a judgement call by you. I don't feel a registry should be making such a judgement call. By setting a limit, you are limiting the users. If you limit the users, you alianate them. If you alianate them, the registry becomes less usefull, if it becomes less usefull, It may take longer for somebody to come up with, and prove, a valid prediction system. Everybody looses.

>>2. My idea of scoring? I don't claim ownership to whether a quake occurs within a window or not - it would self indicating...merely marking it as such really implies no one person's belief system unless people really argue whether the sun rises in the East or not...

I understand what you are trying to say, but I respectfully disagree. The bottom line is that not everybody agrees in a simple hit or miss scoring system. By endorsing a hit and miss system, you are implying that, say some sort of graduated scoring system is invalid. Once you do that, you alianate users, and you end up with the same situation as I stated above.

There is more than one way to analyze perdiction success, and I don't feel a registry should favor one over any other. Once again, that is a judjement call.

Michael


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Suggestions - mrrabbit  22:25:44 - 11/9/2005  (30277)  (0)