Pat,
the hipothetic percentage of chance is a matter much relative.It would be a prediction inside other prediction.

There will be the same future events to determine it.
As the Antique said: "In medio stat virtus".

If I place a city name, what shell you do? You'll go to see the index on the Atlas, but, there, it will report you to the Lat/Long for finding the city.
However, next time I'll add the name also.

Antonio