Re: EQ Prediction Registry
Posted by Michael Tolchard on November 08, 2005 at 20:32:34:

Hi Petra,

Thanks for your input.

My thoughts are not to limit the prediction in any way, other than forcing it to be a valid scientific earthquake prediction with the 3 standard paramaters, time range, geographical area, and magnitude range, all clearly defined and checked, and available for output in a program readable format.

I don't think a registry should be judgemental in any way, shape, or form. Setting limits as you described would be a judgemental call on the part of the registry (did I spell that right ???). A prediction of a 0.1-9.9 anywhere on earth in the next 20 years would be a valid prediction in my opinion. As long as the three paramaters are there, and are valid, and are in the future timewise, then it's a valid prediction as far as a registry is concerned.

It would be up to you and everybody else interested to decide whether a given prediction or series of predictions are meaningful or not ... I would guess not in this case, but who am I to judge :-) but I can guarantee you they will all be valid from a technical standpoint .... applying statistics would weed out the pointless predictions I'd guess, and leave behind only those of interest, but, if I were running an independent registry that would leave me out of that debate ...

Michael