Marc,

I am not sure just how it should be rated. There are a lot of ideas about how to do that. The simplest is pass/fail, which I find a bit severe for localized conditions. In the case of a six month forecast/projection/prediction absolutely. Getting a 6.8 Mw in Alaska over six months does not fulfill the projection, period. Close, but no cigar. I can not accept mr rabbits one week regime, because it does not give the predictor more space for larger events. I still agree with Don, that the "big one" will hit California in a time and a place that nobody rationally predicts. Unless it is Jody, or Stan Deyo, who predict the whole world all the time...

glen