Roger,

"The final result is a normal distribution with a peak at 21 hits aand a maximum of 40 hits. Since you [Don] got 33 hits, you're doing significantly better than chance."

"Significantly?"

Not sure if I am getting this right. After 10,000 repetitions, "chance" did no better than 40. Don only got 33. So how is it that "chance" lost? Are you assigning "chance" the median score of 30 and saying that Don's score is higher than that? If so, how do you avoid the temptation to say that Don's score is only slightly higher "by chance"?

Did you repeat each of 226 predictions 10,000 times?! That would be 2,260,000 repetitions. No wonder Chris is getting dizzy :)

Then again the term "random prediction" is a little misleading -- probably you are assigning Don's predictions to different time-windows, randomly. Not exactly starting from scratch and making a "random prediction."

Well, I'm on the sidelines, waiting to hear what Dr Jones' brother thinks.