Hi all;

Thus far, I can plot a map of his area (0 to 180E, 60N to 30S) and plot each prediction as a red outline on the map. Then I plot all quakes of the predicted size range which happen during the predicted time range.

Once the window closes the map clears and the cycle starts over.

It's fun to watch but what typically happens is that scores of quakes are plotted, some of which are inside the predicted area.

Now, do I count everything outside as a miss? If not, why not?

I can count windows which do or do not contain quakes as hits and misses too which makes more sense.

Probability is sorely needed to make sense out of this.

Comments?

Roger