three months of predictions
Posted by Antonio Romino on May 02, 2000 at 13:20:37:

Analysis of first three months of predictions.

The predicted EQs from Gen/01/2000 to Mar/30/2000, for the period going from Feb/01/2000 to Apr/30/2000, are N° 26 (posted on EPF)..
Excluding the N° 01 and the N° 02 becouse < 3.5, and the N° 12 also for the same raison, the remaining are:
EQs (Mw) with Mag from 3.5 to 4.5----events = 14
EQs with one or two replies ---------events = 04
Series of shocks or strong EQs-------events = 05
The total is = 23 events


In relationship to the list recorded from:

1) Med Net Station
2) Institute of Geodynamics

Excluding from these lists the Eqs not answering to logic of the distance around Naples based on the enclosure table, we’ll have 16 events from Med Net Station and 4 events from Institute of Geodynamic in Greece, we observe in total 20 EQs ( of these 5 are complexes).
To these 20, we can acclude two others from the Swiss list, also answering to logic of distance, that are:
Apr/06/2000 46.6N 26.6E 5.0 about 1200km from Naples
Mar/12/2000 44.7N 15.1E 4.0 about 400km from Naples

The total is 22, a cipher near the 23 predicted events.

Table of Mag in relationship to distance.

An EQ of mag 3.5 predict by Human Seismograph in Naples will have different mag in relationship to kilometric distance.

Example: 3.5 to 100km is = 5.0 to 1050km around Naples or = 4.5 to 750km and so forth
---------------------------------------------
From 0 to 299km --------------3.3 to 3.7 Since to 599km---------------3.8 to 4.2
Since to 899km---------------4.3 to 4.7
Since to 1199km---------------4.8 to 5.2
Since to 1499km---------------5.3 to 5.7
Since to 1799km---------------5.8 to 6.2 Since to 2099km---------------6.3 to 6.6 Since to 2399km---------------6.7 to 7.0

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* An easy observation:
In the predictions of Jan and Feb there are not predictions of large series of shocks for Feb and Mar, against in Mar there are a lot of such predictions for Apr and it is just to note that punctually these predictions are occurred in April and will be yet for the first half of May, after there will be a calm period for Mediterranean Area, only few shokcs <4.0 (done exception for the predicted Eqs occurring with later).
I wish you a good evening, Antonio