Hi All,

During the past year Don and I made copies of two video's which ran on KRON-TV and have been circulating them to people we feel might enjoy them or wish to see something they don't have access to in this area.

The first one, "Where The Fault Lies" covers the Hayward Fault and the RCF and they made it abundantly clear that these faults as well as any other Bay Area faults can go at any time and produce at least a 6.7 earthquake. These are USGS people and other geologists who participated.

The second one, "The Next Great Quake" covers the 1906 earthquake and the San Andreas Fault. The SAF has a history which includes quakes occurring every 100 years as well as up to 250 years. So that one is not out of the question either. Again the USGS scientists participated along with other geologists. David Schwartz in particular said the RCF can deliver a 7.0 and possibly trigger the Hayward Fault if the RCF goes, or there could be a quake in the middle of the Bay and trigger both faults with a 7.4 quake. As for timing, he said of the RCF we may have 1, 2, or possibly 3 years before it goes, but we don't have 10 or more years and if he was betting, though he could lose, he would put his money on the RCF to be the first to go.

These scientists are not going to come out on TV and say an earthquake can occur at any time without some serious thought and a lot of research behind them. What Don and I have been trying to do all along is just share this information here and when we talk to other people.

Honestly, I have no idea how I will handle a 7.0 no matter where I am, but its going to happen and probably not to long from now. I've been beefing up my own personal preparedness in a very urgent way. I too suffer from apathy every now and then. I just get plain lazy.

But one thing is true. If you live or work where the construction is not unreinforced masonry, your chances of survival are nearly 100%. That's the good news and if everyone does their share of collecting water and a few supplies to hold them over for 3 to 5 days, we are all going to do just fine.

Petra