Hi Roger & All,

As you know predicting earthquakes where they occur frequently is not very significant, however, predicting one's that occur which are very infrequent makes the prediction far more valuable. I thought as a point of interest, you and the others might be curious to know that the Johnson Lane area has only had 3 earthquakes in the 4.0 or greater range with 4kms of the epicenter. (See catalog below)

And the area where the coordinates for the Tahoe Vista quake had occurred previously had only 80 quakes of 4.0 or greater since 1937 with the last one occurring 15 months ago. (See second catalog below.)

My prediction stated between Tahoe Vista and Markleville, which in a sense it was, but just a little east of a straight line. This quake is almost as rare as the earthquakes which have occurred in Parkfield. In addition to myself, two of the group members also reported matching ear tones for this location on 8/15 and 8/27, thus making this earthquakes arrival, not a surprise to some.

While I would not place this earthquake in my most successful scrapbook, I would include in a list of those which would be learning experiences along the road of earthquake prediction. Perfection is very hard to achieve but once in awhile is nice. ....Petra

catalog=ANSS
· start_time=1898/01/01,00:00:00
· end_time=2005/09/18,03:35:34
· minimum_magnitude=4.0
· maximum_magnitude=10
· event_type=E
· delta=0 km to 16 km from (39.066,-119.624)
Date Time Lat Lon Depth Mag Magt Nst Gap Clo RMS SRC Event ID
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1962/10/02 03:50:58.40 39.0300 -119.7000 4.30 ML 21 BK
1983/01/09 14:58:57.92 39.1067 -119.6337 9.79 4.03 Mc 4 201 4 0.00 NN
1994/11/18 20:50:58.12 39.1705 -119.6873 12.93 4.19 Mc 34 74 15 0.08 NN

catalog=ANSS
· start_time=1898/01/01,00:00:00
· end_time=2005/09/18,04:12:35
· minimum_magnitude=4.0
· maximum_magnitude=10
· event_type=E
· delta=0 km to 80 km from (39.31,-120.69)
Date Time Lat Lon Depth Mag Magt Nst Gap Clo RMS SRC Event ID
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1937/08/06 03:23:00.00 38.8000 -120.0833 0.00 4.50 ML 0 0.00 CI š�
1937/08/06 03:24:00.00 38.8000 -120.1000 4.50 un BK š�
1943/03/30 21:07:28.00 39.4300 -120.4000 5.30 ML BK š�
1944/08/07 01:18:54.00 39.5000 -120.0000 4.20 ML BK
1946/03/05 14:04:27.00 38.7000 -120.3000 4.10 ML BK
1947/05/10 08:10:42.00 39.6000 -120.3000 4.20 ML BK
1947/09/08 05:52:00.00 39.3000 -120.2000 4.50 ML BK
1947/09/08 07:13:00.00 39.3000 -120.2000 4.70 ML BK
1947/11/25 18:09:02.00 39.3000 -119.8000 4.00 ML BK
1948/03/28 18:26:20.00 39.0000 -119.9000 4.60 ML BK
1948/08/27 20:59:45.00 39.6000 -120.8000 4.00 ML BK
1948/12/29 12:53:28.00 39.5500 -120.0800 6.00 ML BK
1949/01/08 03:39:21.00 39.5500 -120.0800 4.30 ML BK
1949/01/20 07:59:23.00 39.5500 -120.0800 4.80 ML BK
1950/06/22 17:13:18.00 39.7000 -120.4000 4.10 ML BK
1951/01/22 15:14:53.00 39.0800 -119.9500 4.80 ML BK
1952/05/09 15:31:32.00 39.4200 -119.7800 5.10 ML BK
1953/09/26 03:34:29.00 39.5300 -119.9800 5.30 ML BK
1954/04/07 07:05:02.00 39.3700 -120.1500 4.30 ML BK
1954/05/29 04:20:20.00 39.4700 -120.3300 4.10 ML BK
1958/10/01 21:42:11.00 39.5700 -120.3000 4.60 ML BK
1959/04/01 18:18:30.00 39.7200 -120.2000 5.60 ML BK
1959/06/14 01:26:32.00 39.6700 -120.5500 4.50 ML BK
1959/10/30 03:06:33.00 39.7000 -120.1000 4.10 ML BK
1960/11/18 11:03:14.00 39.6000 -120.4700 4.40 ML BK
1961/08/12 04:57:20.00 39.2700 -120.2000 4.00 ML BK
1974/05/27 09:19:19.70 39.8520 -120.9100 2.00 4.60 Mb 15 0.00 BRK 197405274005
1974/09/29 01:26:48.90 39.9140 -120.7880 10.00 4.70 Mb 12 0.00 NEI 197409294001
1975/06/28 04:19:53.58 39.4375 -121.5493 2.41 4.03 Md 27 106 14 0.26 NC -1024559
1975/08/01 16:27:18.00 39.4613 -121.5640 9.04 4.44 Md 40 75 12 0.32 NC -1024989
1975/08/01 20:20:04.72 39.4345 -121.5545 8.42 5.70 ML 29 108 14 0.22 NC -1025002
1975/08/01 21:21:51.16 39.4578 -121.5255 5.07 4.06 Md 6 121 11 0.13 NC -1025019
1975/08/02 00:52:48.99 39.5055 -121.5080 5.78 4.14 Md 6 117 5 0.02 NC -1025063
1975/08/02 16:51:45.68 39.4328 -121.4860 0.81 4.01 Md 6 177 8 0.18 NC -1025137
1975/08/02 17:24:29.64 39.4900 -121.4780 0.73 4.39 Md 6 161 7 0.18 NC -1025138
1975/08/02 17:43:24.65 39.4975 -121.4758 1.18 4.08 Md 5 158 7 0.08 NC -1025140
1975/08/02 20:22:16.83 39.4615 -121.4725 1.08 4.75 Md 7 112 2 0.16 NC -1025150
1975/08/02 20:35:48.92 39.4805 -121.4757 0.84 4.19 Md 7 114 4 0.19 NC -1025152
1975/08/02 20:58:56.21 39.4528 -121.4728 0.02 4.78 Md 6 97 1 0.04 NC -1025155
1975/08/02 21:40:01.82 39.4420 -121.4682 1.15 4.27 Md 6 144 0 0.14 NC -1025162
1975/08/03 01:03:06.21 39.4950 -121.5088 4.46 4.48 Md 8 85 7 0.11 NC -1025184
1975/08/03 02:47:09.19 39.4862 -121.4918 4.11 4.23 Md 8 82 5 0.13 NC -1025191
1975/08/06 03:50:30.52 39.4918 -121.5258 5.33 4.53 Md 11 84 6 0.10 NC -1025375
1975/08/06 16:41:52.38 39.4948 -121.5265 6.28 4.14 Md 12 64 6 0.13 NC -1025418
1975/08/08 07:00:50.41 39.5010 -121.5030 6.73 4.55 Md 19 64 4 0.15 NC -1025473
1975/08/11 06:11:36.62 39.4565 -121.4835 1.96 4.40 Md 17 62 1 0.08 NC -1025606
1975/08/11 15:59:05.73 39.5068 -121.5297 9.27 4.05 Md 17 68 2 0.05 NC -1025624
1975/08/16 05:48:09.47 39.4668 -121.5303 7.84 4.32 Md 19 67 4 0.07 NC -1025753
1975/09/26 02:31:07.16 39.4857 -121.5248 8.93 4.34 Md 17 75 3 0.05 NC -1026586
1975/09/27 22:34:38.14 39.5175 -121.5330 8.69 4.58 Md 18 74 2 0.06 NC -1026630
1975/10/10 07:44:47.74 39.4593 -121.4863 2.58 4.13 Md 15 58 1 0.05 NC -1026930
1975/11/15 03:35:02.03 39.4158 -121.4963 6.89 4.19 Md 16 69 2 0.02 NC -1027494
1976/06/14 23:30:26.43 39.4678 -121.5345 8.39 4.06 Md 18 79 2 0.06 NC -1030008
1976/07/06 03:55:17.87 39.4040 -121.5212 4.91 4.17 Md 21 78 3 0.05 NC -1030354
1980/11/28 18:21:13.10 39.3050 -120.4280 5.00 5.20 un 69 0.00 BRK 198011284014
1981/04/29 11:55:52.80 39.2730 -119.7680 10.00 4.20 un 20 0.00 BRK 198104294006
1982/02/19 04:53:15.70 39.9400 -120.7230 5.00 4.00 un 16 0.00 BRK 198202194007
1983/07/03 15:08:19.12 39.4175 -120.1983 13.73 4.35 Mc 9 94 8 0.04 NN
1985/12/28 19:01:58.54 39.4893 -120.5852 6.46 4.54 Md 11 263 45 0.43 NC -1134299
1992/09/19 03:17:38.87 39.7163 -120.2032 4.56 4.03 Mc 18 89 6 0.13 NN
1992/10/20 13:02:01.70 39.9800 -120.7620 8.00 4.00 un 25 0.00 BRK 199210204030
1992/12/25 04:25:09.60 39.9550 -120.8420 16.00 4.20 un 49 0.00 BRK 199212254017
1995/06/18 22:23:23.13 39.8360 -120.7240 12.60 4.30 un 82 0.00 USG 199506184076
1995/11/15 20:33:59.21 39.6442 -120.0067 11.52 4.61 Mc 48 60 9 0.15 NN
1996/02/02 00:40:30.30 39.9780 -120.8480 5.00 4.00 ML 70 0.71 NEI 199602024004
1997/11/05 17:49:28.76 39.9400 -120.9145 0.02 4.79 ML 202 153 52 0.39 NC 531880
1998/02/17 22:08:39.00 39.9000 -120.4600 10.00 4.10 Mw 49 0.00 REN 199802171053
1998/10/21 08:31:00.93 39.7678 -120.6652 16.03 4.26 Mc 23 147 48 0.05 NN
1998/10/30 09:53:30.46 39.3023 -119.9793 10.53 4.78 Mc 62 36 4 0.10 NN
1999/12/09 16:37:47.47 39.9637 -120.4830 11.80 4.28 ML 14 0.11 NN
2000/12/02 15:34:15.37 39.3787 -120.4507 14.28 4.91 ML 24 0.17 NN
2001/08/10 20:19:26.60 39.8233 -120.6459 17.82 5.31 ML 21 0.11 NN
2001/08/11 12:01:30.67 39.8276 -120.6276 18.30 4.22 ML 17 0.11 NN
2002/12/22 02:35:19.87 39.8408 -120.6984 5.44 4.23 ML 17 0.15 NN
2004/06/03 08:54:45.57 39.3303 -120.0213 8.30 4.49 ML 52 0.12 NN
2005/06/26 18:45:57.82 39.3052 -120.0930 0.38 4.80 Mw 24 82 6 0.27 NC 21465580