Hi All. According to a study by Dr. Robert Nadeau and Thomas McEvilly it appears that large quakes occur with a cycle of 3 years. The following is from a paper by Thomas McEvilly and was co-authored by Dr. Nadeau. Take Care…Don in creepy town

Friday, January 9, 2004

Scientists have found striking evidence of a three-year cycle of earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault, a development that might lead to the first practical short-term earthquake forecasting in central California.

The new research, which one expert called a tour de force of geoscience, suggests that the next peak of the cycle is likely to come late this year.

But don't panic.

In an interview Thursday, one of the study's two authors, geophysicist Robert Nadeau of the UC Berkeley Seismographic Laboratory, emphasized that he was not formally forecasting an imminent surge in either small or large quakes. He said it would take further research to confirm if the cycles are real and, if so, how they work.

But if they are real, they increase the likelihood of predicting quakes with enough precision, over short enough time periods, for residents and public agencies to make plans -- or head for the hills.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2004/01/09/MNG6C46SML1.DTL

• Major Quakes 3 Year Cycle