Hi Kiddo. There are about 625 quakes associated with the Obsidian Butte swarm. That leaves 337 quakes for the rest of the State. I have never been to overly concerned about the number of quakes unless they are occurring in a place where swarms haven’t been seen before. There have been swarms in the Obsidian Butte area in the past with nothing of any consequences occurring after them. That may not be the case each an every time, but so far it is.

What concerns me and you as well are the lack of quakes in the M=4.0 to M=5.0+ range in the Bay Area. The Berkeley Seismology Lab and some people at USGS and Stanford, have also voiced this concern. Does this mean we are going to go from the M=2.0 and occasional M=3.0 straight to an M=7.0+ with no sign of something ready to give?

The way I see it is that we don’t have a recorded history of small quakes in the Bay Area before one of the larger quakes occurred. We have a recorded history of the large quakes, but no recorded history of small quakes. What kind of activity was there before these large quakes occurred? Can and will the next major quake in the Bay Area occur like a thief in the night? Will it sneak up on us taking us completely by surprise? As David Schwartz so aptly pointed out. We may have maybe one, or two, or three years. We don’t have fifteen, twenty, or thirty.

The last report I read indicated that 40% of the people were ready for the next quake. Not very good. Most of the people I have talked to where I live have stated, “We have had our major quake. It isn’t very likely were going to have another in our lifetime and besides I have more pressing matters on my mind then to think about a major quake that may never occur while I’m still alive.” In some ways I can’t argue with that kind of thinking. Take Care…Don in creepy town