You missed Oaxaca, Mexico ! - just prior to Hector ?

But Hector (thankfully) didn't cause much damage and Volcanic Islands didn't cause any..and Mexico was pretty minimal as well.

I don't see a rise of large quakes anywhere - we actually were a bit below average last year - 18 7+ quakes a year is the average.

I'll play Devil's advocate here - There is a certain logic to not spending millions and millions on prediction when damaging quakes don't happen all that often. The number's of lives lost per year due to earthquakes (and its the building, not the quakes themselves) is about 10,000 - How many are lost to car accidents? Fire ? Accidental deaths per year in the US alone is over 93,000, Suicide - 31,000, Chrionic Liver disease (drinking) 25,000. What is the number simply from starvation in the world?

Since buildings are the problem - fix the buildings - quite a logical conclusion to make. Its costly to either research something that is hotly debated as even possible, whereas that same funding put to use on engineering research and proper building methods and retrofit IS something that can be seen as beneficial. I think it was Armenia that was devastated by a 5.0 quake. Bad building - and the same in Turkey.

Why did we fare so well with Hector ? And even Northridge - the damage was extensive, but if we didn't have the building codes we do and the knowledge about how to build, it would have been much more devastating.

I'd have to say Fear is what drives us to want the prediction - we can see hurricanes and tornados coming - we can't see a quake coming. I'm also a afraid of what a quake will do over here on the Newport-Inglewood fault - massive damage from pipeline ruptures, bridges down, fires, etc. I live and work on this fault.

In the meantime, we ALL MUST have quake supplies on hand, rotated and up to date and do what we can to secure our homes and property so we don't have the damage or that it is minimized.

Canie