Hey Don,

There's to much negative in your statement. Yeah, you're right, if the first forecast was for a 8.0+ maybe people would panic, but if they got a prediction for 3 days for a possible 7.0 and they were educated to know what to do, before, during and after, they'd be at home or work, doing what they normally do. But before entering an unreinforced masonry building, they might think twice.

I have to err on the side of no lawsuits. They don't have lawsuits in Florida when they issue hurricane warnings or in tornado alley either. Sometimes the forecasters are way off, a million people get evacuated, they've spent money boarding up, traveling and the whole nine yards and to date I know of no such lawsuits. Even here in California when flood warnings get issued and the storm goes north or south, some people have made a heavy investment in sandbags, some move their things into storage and the weatherman doesn't get sued.

Do you remember in the 50's when everyone invested heavily in bomb shelters, both private and civic and everyone thought the bomb was coming at some point. So far, no bombs, the money has been spent and I don't think anyones complained. Seems to me we are in greater danger of an earthquake than the bomb, but you surely wouldn't catch me in a bomb shelter during an earthquake. Yikes!

There's only one way this is ever going to work and it goes like this:
1. Teach preparedness
2. Go over preparedness
3. Teach people about the warning methods (room for error)
4. Give them a drill
5. Give them two more drills
6. Give them a forecast for a 4.5 - 5.5 for 3 days and see what happens
7. Keep teaching preparedness, keep the drills going
8. Repeat #6 as often as necessary.
9. Tell them, its not perfect, we're working on it, be patient, don't panic, think of it like learning to use your fire extinguisher. Its there, you hope you never need it, but if you do, you need to know how to use it or its worthless.

If a glass of water is filled half way with water, is it half full, or half empty? I'd like a 50/50 chance of surviving with preparedness and a warning.

However, in summation, you're right, education is the key. Everyone needs to know for every situation they enter in life, they have to know how to get in and out safely. When shopping, driving on a freeway overpass, in a parking garage, everywhere, you need to assess the danger and prepare as if it could happen in minutes. It puts a whole new perspective on what if.

Hanging ten near the RCF, Pat in Petaluma