Re: Earthquake prediction code&ethics
Posted by Pat In Petaluma on March 27, 2000 at 20:37:27:

Hi Char,

Though Canie probably knows the answer to this one, since I'm here, I'll go ahead.

Yes, we in the United States have this code, it comes via a contract those sign when they work for the federal government. It also applies to others in different parts of the world. But not to everyone.

If you've noticed in reading the material related to Parkfield, it says that in some sense it is an earthquake prediction project, however, when the order is given to notify the residents a possible earthquake may arrive, its called an "alert", not a prediction. A class "A Alert" still only has a chance of 37% of a quake arriving. Not very good odds from probably the most instrumented area in the world.

I've met three of the Parkfield four and I can tell you, they are all wonderful men. So don't think I'm slighting them, because I'm not. These guys are true pioneers in something new. But after spending about 40 million dollars in a place that hardly gets any earthquakes and has most likely the least number of residents, I find it hard to justify an annual budget >< $500,000 to $1,000,000.

My suggestion to all of them was to build a Parkfield II in some place that has lots of earthquakes and in addition to the regular team who studies the data, to have a school attached to it where young students of seismology can attend on a 30 day rotation and feel the earth move under their feet and find true motivation in learning. None of them thought my idea was worthwhile.

What we have to realize is that people don't like change that much and if Parkfield II became really successful, how would that look? I see it two ways. Learning from Parkfield I would show the work and time invested was worthwhile, but if the old team is not in the new Parkfield II, then if Parkfield II pulls in ringer after ringer, then they'd sort of show up Parkfield I. Actually, everyone would come out winners, but perspectives do play an important role in these decisions.

From the girl who spent a year asking, why not? Today I remain unconvinced that it is impossible, for me from what I've seen, its a definite can do event.

From the Northbay...Pat In Petaluma