Hi Dr. Chouliaras,

I was talking to a friend of mine who is a geophysist and discussing earthquake probabilities based on the use of averaging. He and I both agreed that this is an unsuitable way to calculate when a quake has a probability of arriving or not.

Just to cite an example. For the San Francisco Bay Area, (who knows where that starts and ends) a 3.0 quake is supposed to happen every 18 days. But it doesn't. When averaging if one were to include, lets say Loma Prieta, if you include all of the aftershocks from the '89 quake, then it throws the whole thing off.

So though you might say in Antonio's case its an unlikely miss, is it really? You see Jim Berkland uses a 140 mile radius of San Francisco and backs up the lunar and tidal data, with lost animals and other precursors. His Seismic Windows Theory isn't really taken well within the science community, but he is still the only person to publically predict the Loma Preita Earthquake. His best work is on larger quakes and has an outstanding record, but when you throw in the little quakes, then his average looks lower.

Its much like the weatherman, he may have an 85% average, but at times misses the big storm prediction or gets a little over zealous with them and people make all kinds of preparations and find in the end, the storm went north or south and the sun comes out, instead of the biggest storm of the century.

But as I have learned, you really have to be more precise in the "site specific" area, than just throwing out mileage. Therein lies the difficulty with earthquake sensitives. At times you can be exactly on target, but at other times not. So I'll continue to ask why until I can find a suitable explanation.

One thing for certain that affects how sensitives perceive upcoming quakes is by emotional stress, physical illness, taking medication and a faster paced lifestyle. Psychic people are much the same. For one who is relaxed and able to embrace the ebb and flow of life, it comes easy, but if you have to much going on, or some kind of upset, then it interferes with the natural abilities.

So if you averaged lets say, the last two years for the area Antonio works on, what are the probabilities from a current data entry, versus a long term probability data average? From just a little observation I can see earthquake patterns change in areas over time, but in what term of years, one has to take a serious review of the past and present times to anticipate what may happen in the future.

The San Francisco Bay Area has been far more quiet in the last year or so, than in many times before and in that, people are in expectation of 5.0 or greater quakes. Is it something we are all anticipating, or is it inner knowing? It can be both, or one or the other.

Just some thoughts...Pat