Re: Idea to predict earthquakes
Posted by Pat In Petaluma on March 18, 2000 at 16:27:43:

Hi Mark,

Fraser-Smith's ULF activity was a good start and its my understanding that in and around somewhere the research using this kind of equipment is being done.

You're right about the energy going somewhere, it does. It travels though the earth when large earthquake happen and is known to be a catalyst for triggering future earthquakes on faults that are ready to slip. Theres a great team of scientists working on this right now and they are doing quite well. I can't say anymore about it, but know it is being tended to.

There are quite a number of things going on behind the scenes in science that haven't floated into mainstream yet. They are still in R & D, much like my Seismic Sound Theory. It needs testing, refinement, instrumentation and time to study the data.

It is my firm belief that earthquakes do not arrive by surprise in the 4.0 or greater variety. There a huge list of known precursors to these events. Each fault being of its own origins has its own type of precursory phenomena, but one has to discover what precursors are native to that fault. So much work is still in store for the future.

In looking at Loma Prieta it was thought that within five years the Hayward Fault would deliver a 7.0 earthquake. This was because of so many prior events where one led to the other. But after 11 years, it hasn't happened. I wonder why?But one thing for sure, every day we move closer to the day when it is going to deliver that 7.0 quake and in that, we have to know as the sands sift through the hour glass, the days are short.

So while many keep seeking the answers to the questions, we have to ask, "what have we learned." Quite a lot, more than I think is recognised, actually today, most likely predictions could be issued in a less dramatic way, but the public needs to know they have a right to have them and the science community needs to know you can give them, even if they aren't 100% correct all of the time.

When you put a quarter into a slot machine, you have odds of I believe 39% of hitting a jackpot, but people keep putting money in there and think they might win. Earthquake prediction funding is a gamble as well, but the money needs to be there to continue the research and put the scientists to work on it as a sole interest, not a sideline. I vote for investing, the investment that saves lives, it gives something in return that has a true benefit. To allow that person, their friends and family to awake to a new day and have them with them. There's nothing that one can equivocate to money in that result.

Keeping the Faith...Pat


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Idea to predict earthquakes - Antonio Romino  06:57:32 - 3/20/2000  (2748)  (0)