Posted by Don in Hollister on July 19, 2005 at 22:19:58:
Hi All. The distance from my predicted epicenter and the 07/16/05 Lopes Point event is a mere 2.37 km. This is the closest epicenter in the NCSN catalog of Ml>=1.7 to the predicted epicenter in the past three years of data. I was off by one day, but still inside the window. The magnitude leaves a lot to be desired though. For the Sunset District NEIC reports an event of M 1.7 occurred on July 17 at 37.734N 122.504W at a distance of 6.2 km from my predicted epicenter. Only ten other events of M>=1.7 have been located in the area within about 15-20 km of this epicenter in the past two years (about once in 72 days) of which only four have been closer to the expected epicenter than 6 km. Again the magnitude was a failure. Take Care…Don in creepy town
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