Thank You, Dr. Chouliaras for your response. In regard to Max Wyss' seismic quiescense/seismic gap theory, though it certainly has its place in the world of theory and fault probability factors, even he doesn't use it all of the time.

In regard to the Izmit quake of late, he used "b value" in assessing where he thought the next earthquake in that area would occur and missed it by one degree. That was some period of time before the large quake, but I have yet to ascertain the time frame. But it seems as though it may have been in months rather than a year or more.

However, with those who studied the area for years and knew its potential, other than Wyss, et al, using a "b value" assessment for a potential prediction, no warnings to the citizenry were given. Another seismolgist in England after the quake said he had expected it to occur as much as two years ago. So I continue to ask, at what point does someone know the potential is there and advise the public to get their earthquake preparedness done as things aren't looking to good?

While it is my understanding that those who work for the USGS are not allowed to make public earthquake predictions, there are many others who work for schools or universities or institutues that are not barred from this procedure. So what is holding these individuals or groups back from going ahead? This I have yet to discover.

Now if its thinking the public is not ready to receive warnings, then very soon, they will have an opportunity to tell me. In the near future I will be going on TV/Radio for PBS and will sometime during the show present the question: Are you ready to receive a warning even if its not 100% today? I hope for a good response level and for the first time in history I will have the rare opportunity to do the research that today is only given a psychological evaluation. I'm greatly looking forward to this event. My personal thought on this question is that they are going to give me more than a 50% positive response. They are ready and willing to have a warning of some variety, rather than face the unknown with no time to prepare. The survival instincts in humans remains foremost.

Best Regards....Pat