Roger,

Please review post number 26828, posted by Chris. Is that right, if you make a hit in one 7 day window out of 70 days it is only a 1 in 10 chance? Since it only hits on one day, it's it 1 in 70? But you know, if one considers how few people make earthquake predictions for any one person to make a call for one and get it perfectly, that's really a rarity.

Though I know you were not that impressed, from the predictors point of view it is just as difficult to predict a small quake as a large one. It truly doesn't make any difference to us at all. It would seem easier because there are more small quakes than large one's, but those small quakes go everywhere all of the time so even pinning one of them down, unless its in a geothermal field is not that easy.

Being that you know a lot about earthquakes, evaluations and chances of earthquakes occuring, it would be kind of fun if you would make perhaps six predictions and let Don and I compete against your knowledge and see who comes out with the greatest number of hits. Perhaps we could give it a 30 day time period? I know you are not an "earthquake predictor", but it would be a matter of skill, with you having more professional years of experience than Don and I in geophysics. What do say?

Petra