4 quakes in 11,000 years
Posted by chris in suburbia on May 26, 2005 at 02:34:27:

Canie...here is the reference....I forgot to put the year on my list, but 2003 sounds correct
Dolan, J. F., Christofferson, S. A., and Shaw, J. H., Recognition of paleoearthquakes on the Puente Hills blind thrust fault, California, Science, v. 300, p. 115-118

I have some doubts about this paper, although 4 quakes is 11,000 years seems reasonable. In fact, you might expect more quakes if the whole 5 mm/yr contraction were on this fault...which it is not. (5 mm/yr would mean 5 meters of slip every 1000 years). Some of the biggest potential earthquakes for LA are on faults with low slip rates so that quakes could be rare on any single fault. The most common large earthquake would probably be on the San Andreas fault and on the San Jacinto fault system. Historically, the San Jacinto faults in smaller quakes...around M7 or I think smaller...so there are lots of them but maybe not so much of a problem for deep LA basin (as usual, I am doing this from memory and not checking, so could be a bit off)...
Chris