Re: opinions
Posted by chris in suburbia on May 16, 2005 at 05:38:37:

I think that there should be a large education effort in all the cities, towns, villages on remote islands to explain subduction zone earthquake....that the larger the earthquake, the larger the area of the rupture, and the longer the ground will shake. Thjat the large the rupture, normally the bigger the tsunami (modified by shaking-induced underwater landslides, and by the bathymetric contours) If the ground shakes over 1 minute, on normal soil the earthquake is probably approaching M8. So, they count alligators or pythons and while protecting themselves from falling stuff....and if it exceeds 60...get to higher ground quickly if they are on low ground. In advance, educate the people to what areas are vulnerable to inundation, and what areas, as close by as possible, would make good refuges. You also teach them to recognize what is going to happen if the sea retreats, etc. You figure out what would work to protect fishermen in shallow coastal waters...what they should do.

The Indonesian government should be doing this...but with the help of experts. I understand that Kerry Sieh went out of his way to educate people during 2004.

Oh, yeah, warnings: I would not bother to rely on earthquake prediction at all...(meaning, there may be an earthquake this week). Instead, I would first focus efforts along all of the SW coast Sumatra south of the equator...all the way to Java (and maybe a couple degrees north of the equator because a tsunami could extend back up there). I'd also look into what could be done north of 14 deg all the way to Bangladesh...could there be a megatsunami up there, where it would overrun the flat low delta areas? Learn more about the plate boundary so that the possibilities of a subduction or other large thrust earthquake can be understood. Bangladesh has several times in the late 20th century had more than 100,000 people killed in storm surges from cyclones.

Back to warnings: yes, a tsunami warning system to warn coastal residents that "A"...a large magnitude earthquake had occurred that could cause an ocean-crossing tsunami (Tsunami watch"...and then a different warning that one was actually generated (would be too late for nearby residents...which is why they have to know to get to high ground immediately...

Chris


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: opinions - Petra  17:09:40 - 5/16/2005  (26005)  (1)
        ● Re: opinions - chris in suburbia  17:52:39 - 5/16/2005  (26006)  (1)
           ● Re: opinions - Petra  19:34:59 - 5/16/2005  (26007)  (1)
              ● Re: opinions - chris in suburbia  03:18:38 - 5/17/2005  (26011)  (0)