Re: For Chris -what quake today?
Posted by chris in suburbia on April 26, 2005 at 03:10:07:

Glen, Canie,
The quakes at 0.36 N area may be of interest because they are likely to be along the south edge of the M8.7 rupture. Because the area to the north has already broken, it is very likely not capable of another great earthquake (although the next one could overlap with the previous a little). To have,say, a M8.5+ quake it has to break 100s of km of fault. I was most interested in the quakes a couple weeks ago near 1.5 deg south...which included a M6.8 and several other M6+ quakes. And, the focal mechanism of 1 or more of these was consistent with slip on the subduction zone. But, the epicenter is not so important here...it could be at 0.35 N, ir could be at 1.5 S, or it could be at 5S and rupture north....it is the entire rupture that is important (the epicenter is important for 2 reasons: it is that future area that might be most important to monitor for precursors, and the direction of rupture is important to where the ground shaking is strongest, and possibly to tsunami generation and directivity.....
Chris