Had lunch with a couple of seismologists....NS and KJ. I asked them about the stress weaking of the next segment of the subduction zone..south of equator...that it might be delayed. They agreed that it might be....the static stress change in the elastic crust is immediate....but it is delayed in the somewhat ductile asthenosphere (for example) (KJ). Also, NS said that the shear stress is increased on the next part of the subduction zone..which weakens the fault..but the pore pressure drops also, which strengthens it (why this is is not clear, and it is probably not always true). But, with time, the pore pressure increases again and weakens the subduction zone. They both say this depends on how you model it. So, if it depends on how you model it, why not say the past os the key to the future. This is my comment and has nothing to do with NS or KJ: the most hazardous day would be the same lag as between the 9.3 and the 8.7....so that would, I think, bring us to about June 30. But, this would be a smooth effect.....June 30 2005 might only be slightly more hazardous than April 30....and might only be somewhat more hazardous than June 30 2006, or 2016.......so: about 1.5 deg S, and M8.5+...ruturing between equator and across several hundred km to southeast....sometime in next 100 years...
Chris