Re: SCEC link ..tsunami/Sumatra
Posted by Petra on April 18, 2005 at 19:16:48:

Hi Chris,

Thanks for the link. I was thinking the other day about the short term and long term global implications from this earthquake series. In the scientific sense, history is being written on a daily basis and what seemed impossible has proven otherwise. Unfortunately, Sumatra unzipped remains as an unforeseen list of disasters yet to come. We cannot say that it is over as regionally the worst may be yet to come when one considers how little is known about earthquake triggering from multiple major earthquakes in close proximity.

The volcano issue is a serious one as well because it presents us with the potential for major eruptions and those could affect the entire planet in creating global cooling. Given that both the eruptions of Mount Saint Helens and Pinatubo cooled the earth for years after, this threat could be worst than the earthquakes and the tsunami's together.

Global financial impacts are already evident in not only disaster relief, but also the costs to some countries for proper tsunami warning equipment. I would estimate we are well on our way to a One Trillion Dollar loss, if not there already. But there is much to do yet. The people in the region are a long way from recovery. Businesses need to recover, but as those are primarily travel industry related, little investment capital can be expected due geologic uncertainties.

We cannot restore the lives which were taken because no one believed this could happen and didn't spend the money needed for a warning system. However, perhaps people who live in regions where repeated efforts were made to warn them that disaster looms for them will take those warnings more seriously. While Americans are receiving an education about earthquakes and tsunami's, we can only hope they come to grips with our own reality; we have to prepare to survive.

Tomorrow's west coast earthquake boogeyman is here. The clues are as plain as day, but we have so much ostrichism from living in utopia for so long, that this may be the greatest obstacle to overcome. So the question remains; how can you tell these people they don't have forever until disaster arrives in their own backyard and have them accept that?

Petra