getting serious S of equator-Sumatra
Posted by chris in suburbia on April 11, 2005 at 09:26:07:

Now that there has been a M6.8 thrust earthquake at 1 1/2 deg S, things seem to be pretty serious. Here are some suggestions.

1: Static stress changes mean that the earthquake has been advanced by some decades in the area of the 1833 rupture south of the equator. But, there are a lot of fluids in a subduction zone, and they are likely moving around. So, the maximum weakening of the subduction zone may not be instantaneous...it may be some months later. I saw a talk on this a half or whole decade ago concerning the Mojave faults.
**So...someone put out daily probabilities of an M8++ quake based on this type of modeling, so we know whether the daily hazard is increasing or decreasing.

2: Move a lot of the instruments that are measuring aftershocks (broadband seismometers, accelerometers, GPS) from recording aftershocks to south of the equator...and bring in new ones. But in Ocean Bottom Seismomters south of equator. Look at INSAR inferometry (??) in near real time.

3: May be too expensive, but indentify seep mounds on the seafloor (and maybe there are some onshore) and monitor them, just like you would gases from a volcano.

4: Focus the tsunami education and warning systems south of the equator. One question is where the 1833 tsunami causes damage/fatalities.

and...chop chop...do this quickly. Someone get some emergency $ from Indonesia, the state department, NSF...or, maybe the Japanese will do this...and get out there and do this.

I have a connection with the relief agency CARE and could contact them and see if they are involved in education efforts...or want to be. OK, I'll wait 24 hours for feedback and then do this.

I'll send this post as an email to wife in suburbia, Nano S, John McR, CN in paradise.
Chris


Follow Ups:
     ● Kerry Sieh's page on Sumatra S of equator - chris in suburbia  17:51:07 - 4/11/2005  (25593)  (1)
        ● Re: Kerry Sieh's page on Sumatra S of equator - Petra  21:54:25 - 4/11/2005  (25594)  (0)