Hi All,

A little while ago I remembered something else that was included in the lecture today. Jordan said he wanted to bring in some psychologists to determine how well the public could handle earthquake prediction.

Frankly, I thought we had gotten past this thing. I think Keilis-Borok's prediction of last year pretty well showed us how well the public does handle predictions. Most everyone who lives in this state knows we live in earthquake country and when we go for a long time without moderate or large earthquakes, the average person on the street will tell you they expect one at any time. I know, because I ask and I ask frequently.

No one is ever going to know how large groups of people will act if they ever receive a really short term earthquake prediction for a large earthquake, but I think it would be safe to say if they aren't prepared for it ahead of time, then chaos is an eventuality. Public education on prediction and earthquake safety need to be delivered hand in hand and if that's not done, then the results are truly predictable. You don't need a psychologist to tell you that.

So taking the a leap, suppose a couple of psychologists told the Earthquake Prediction Council that people can't handle short term prediction, do you think they would say that no one can deliver them?

Petra