EARTH AND SUN DIGEST 2005/02/24 New Ice Age?
Posted by Canie on March 03, 2005 at 08:41:42:

The Past Week Ticker

M14/6.1M/V7.8, T15/6.6M,V8, W16/6.6M
, Th17, F18, Sa19/MC,6.5M, Su20, M21, T22/6.4M, W23/6.0M, Th24/V7.8

MTWThFSaSu-days of week; 6M-quake, V8-volcano, MC or XC-solar flare, GS30-geomagnetic storm



Moon Phases and Orbit for March 2005 per Astronomy Magazine in EDT

3 last quarter, 7 perigee, 10 new moon, 17 first quarter, 19 apogee, 25 full moon

The Moon is at perigee (225,702 miles near) on 7 March.



The vernal equinox is at 7:33 AM EST.





EARTH AND SUN DIGEST for February 24, 2005

New Ice Age?

...Week at a Glance (with time ticking)






MONTHLY COUNTS of Earthquakes of 6 or greater Magnitude in the World,

per USGS/NEIC Preliminary Global Report



 YEAR:   93  94  95  96  97  98  99  00  01  02  03  04  05
October 4 12 21 9 6 3 4 8 11 21 11 12
November 0 7 10 6 7 4 15 15 10 11 13 17
December 0 6 13 7 3 2 16 11 7 11 17 21
January 2 1 13 10 4 7 5 8 10 14 10 11 28, more after 9M on 12/26/04
February 1 12 13 18 7 4 6 4 14 6 5 13 (15)
March 0 2 8 13 5 7 8 5 5 10 15 10

YR total 19 110 160 109 76 63 103 109 112 133 145 145 (42)






Global Earthquakes of 5.0 to 5.9M thru Wednesday--23 (Japan-1, SoPacific-7); three quakes of 6M or greater: 2/23 6.0M NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G., 2/22 6.4M CENTRAL IRAN, 2/19 6.5M SULAWESI, INDONESIA.

California and Nevada earthquakes in past 276, no quakes 4M or greater

Interactive map

Earthquake data .

Volcanic ash near Jet Stream (at 5 mi/8 km)--Ecuador

http://Ash data



Sunspot No. high and low--60 on 20 February to 23 on 22 February

Largest and smallest daily area of sunspots--620 on 17 February to 200 on 23 February (100=Earth-size)

X-Class Solar Flares: none; last M-Class flares (5+/day): six on 15 January

(See updating site at www.sel.noaa.gov/today.html )

Planetary Geomagnetic A Indices: high of 25 on 18 February; five or more Kp's of 4 (or more) per 24 hours: five on 18 February; high no. of Kp's of 3 per 24 hours this week: three on 19 and 20 Febuary



(Data is upgraded at the source as needed without notice.)





Northern Ash and Gas Eruptions north of latitude 23°N.



KLIUCHEVSKOI Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia 56.06°N, 160.64°E; summit elev. 4,835 m (7.8 km)

during 11-18 February, ash plumes rising to 7.8 km during 12-14 February, phreatic bursts occurring when lava flows contacted a glacier seen on 12 and 13 February, during 12-16 February, volcanic bombs hurled 300-500 m above the crater, Strombolian activity in the crater, and lava traveling into Krestovsky channel on the volcano's NW flank, during a flight on 16 February a mudflow seen extending 27 km, a lava flow melting a large section of Ehrman glacier



SHIVELUCH Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia 56.653°N, 161.360°E; summit elev. 3,283 m (7.4 km)

during 11-18 February, ash plumes possibly rising to a maximum height of 7.4 km on 17 February, possible weak ash-and-gas explosions and hot avalanches during the week



ST. HELENS Washington, USA 46.20°N, 122.18°W; summit elev. 2,549 m (3.5 km)

during 16-22 February growth of the new lava dome inside the crater continuing, accompanied by low rates of seismicity, low emissions of steam and volcanic gases, and minor production of ash, a A GPS unit deployed on 16 February on the E arm of the glacier within the volcano's crater moved northward about 1.2 m per day, this rapid rate of flow consistent with the thickening of the glacier resulting from its compression between the growing lava dome and E crater wall, a thermal imaging flight on the 16th suggesting that a longitudinal crack developing along the top of the new lava dome, on the afternoon of 18 February a rockfall off the lava dome producing an ash plume rising several hundred meters above the crater rim, the extensive cracking on the long, smooth, whaleback-shaped lava dome suggests increased rockfall activity and similar small plumes in the coming weeks; recent airphotos as of 1 February with the new lava dome, uplifted area of crater floor, and deformed glacier ice a combined volume of about 38 million cubic meters, almost one-half the volume of the old lava dome



VENIAMINOF Alaska Peninsula, USA 56.17°N, 159.38°W; summit elev. 2,507 m (?)

during 11-18 February low-level Strombolian eruptive activity continuing based on seismic data and satellite imagery, no ash emissions observed above the cloud cover





Equatorial Ash and Gas Eruptions at less than 23°N or S





ANATAHAN Mariana Islands, central Pacific Ocean 16.35°N, 145.67°E; summit elev. 788 m (low)

eruptive activity declining steadily during the week of 14 February to less than 5% of the peak level during the eruption beginning 5 January, ash eruptions continuing, the 2003 crater floor almost entirely covered by fresh lava to a diameter of about one kilometer, on 21 February seismic and acoustic records showing very low levels of activity, at 1515 on 17 February a plume of steam and vog (fog composed of volcanic fumes) extending about ~170 km SW of Anatahan



COLIMA western México 19.514°N,103.62°W; summit elev. ~3,850 m (low)

during 16-21 February several small explosions producing ash plumes rising to low levels; plumes drifting predominately SE and W



EGON Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia 8.67°S, 122.45°E; 1,703 m (low)

as of 17 February recent eruptive activity prompting the local government to evacuate hundreds of residents living near the volcano



KARANGETANG [Api Siau] Siau Island, Indonesia 2.47°N, 125.29°E; summit elev. 1,784 m (0)

on 26 February a lava flow traveling 600 m from crater, lava avalanches in the same area traveling as far as 1,200 m down the volcano's flank, at 1030 a pyroclastic flow traveling ~3,400 m reaching the sea



KILAUEA Hawaii, USA 19.43°N, 155.29°W; summit elev. 1,222 m (0)

on 21 February a new ocean entry named East Lae`apuki starting, located between the other two ocean entries (Ka`ili`ili and West Highcastle) active since 31 January 2005, the first time three ocean entries active since early 2003, during 17-22 February surface lava flows visible on the volcano



MANAM offshore New Guinea, Papua New Guinea 4.10°S, 145.06°E; summit elev. 1,807 m (3 km)

mild eruptive activity observed from Manam's Southern rater during 18-21 February, weak-to-moderate ash explosions the crater rising a few hundred meters above the crater and drifting E and SE, depositing fine ash in areas downwind, main Crater emitting white vapor



PITON DE LA FOURNAISE Réunion Island, Indian Ocean 21.23°S, 55.71°E; summit elev. 2,631 m (0)

a new period of heightened seismic activity beginning on 17 February around 1100, events decreased, but recommenced at 1438 with several hundreds of events, strong deformation recorded at the same time by tiltmeters and the extensometer network, eruption tremor around 1835, becoming strong at 1850, and lava flows were observed in the Grand Brûlé area, the eruption ending on 19 February



RABAUL New Britain Island, Papua New Guinea 4.271°S, 152.203°E; summit elev. 688 m (1.7 km)

during 1-21 February eruptions of ash clouds fairly frequently at Rabaul caldera's Tavurvur cone, ash clouds rising a few hundred meters, drifting SE, and depositing ash mainly offshore


TUNGURAHUA Ecuador 1.47°S, 78.44°W; summit elev. 5,023 m (low)

volcanic activity were at low levels during 16-22 February, low-energy gas, steam, and ash plumes emitted; ash on 24 February to 7.8 km






All ash elevations are in km above sea level (a.s.l.) and times are converted to UTC.





EARTH

The FIVE Index has the last column giving the eight daily
Kp (three hourly) geomagnetic values in the same
UTC time frame as the quake listings.

FIVE Index of Global earthquakes of 5.0 magnitude or greater

DATE-(UTC)-TIME LAT LON DEP MAG Q COMMENTS Day's Kp values
yy/mm/dd hh:mm:ss deg. deg. km

READ UP for latest report. North Sumatra regional quakes separately below.

05/02/24 04:55:5020.99S113.64W10.0 5.5SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
05/02/23 12:12:496.40S150.69E57.7 5.7NEW BRITAIN REGION, .N.G.
05/02/23 11:33:586.27S150.58E51.8 6.0NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
05/02/22 23:14:1865.66S133.01E10.0 5.6SOUTH OF AUSTRALIA
05/02/22 19:15:5125.80N109.90W10.0 5.1GULF OF CALIFORNIA
05/02/22 18:19:294.64N85.33W10.0 5.1OFF COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA
05/02/22 11:20:2433.12N137.19E363.2 5.6NEAR S. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
05/02/22 03:20:0712.63N123.21E18.4 5.8MASBATE REGION, PHILIPPINES
05/02/22 02:25:2130.73N56.82E10.0 6.4CENTRAL IRAN
05/02/21 00:04:5629.84S176.85W10.0 5.2KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
05/02/20 13:41:042.36S68.55E10.0 5.0CARLSBERG RIDGE
05/02/20 12:14:534.70S153.13E67.5 5.3NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
05/02/20 09:24:4715.44S173.10W10.0 5.0TONGA
05/02/20 05:08:388.89N126.18E41.8 5.1MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
05/02/20 04:52:499.66N126.18E34.4 5.0MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
05/02/19 00:09:115.68S122.11E10.0 5.5SULAWESI, INDONESIA
05/02/19 00:04:445.56S122.06E10.0 6.5SULAWESI, INDONESIA
05/02/18 20:18:1823.20N121.51E21.9 5.5TAIWAN
05/02/18 15:25:4823.69S177.42W150.2 5.2SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
05/02/18 10:33:4251.31N178.85W57.8 5.2ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
05/02/18 10:06:1951.31N178.92W52.2 5.0ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
05/02/17 20:42:571.77S81.04W10.0 5.1OFF COAST OF ECUADOR
05/02/17 16:42:450.96N125.96E16.8 5.3MOLUCCA SEA
05/02/17 06:20:2434.08S178.09W45.9 5.2SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
05/02/17 06:12:165.85S150.57E38.1 5.4NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
05/02/17 03:12:4511.02S76.08W124.1 5.4CENTRAL PERU
05/02/17 01:19:1656.12S27.44W102.7 5.6SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION


SUMATRA REGIONAL QUAKES, read up from south to north, including Myanmar

MYANMAR: no 5M quakes

ANDAMAN ISLANDS: three 5M quakes
05/02/22 17:12:0010.81N91.82E26.2 5.6ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
05/02/20 23:08:0410.27N93.63E26.8 5.3ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
05/02/20 11:43:4211.41N92.29E34.0 5.0ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

NICOBAR ISLANDS: one 5M quakes
05/02/24 15:06:478.61N93.74E30.0 4.9NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

NORTHERN SUMATRA AREA: three 5M quakes
05/02/24 07:35:472.91N95.68E4.5 5.7SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
05/02/21 06:10:123.25N93.77E27.6 5.1OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
05/02/17 05:31:274.70N95.18E41.5 5.7NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

SOUTHERN SUMATRA: one 5M quake
05/02/19 14:04:415.76S101.63E28.8 5.5SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA


United States And U.S. Territorial Quakes this past week
with quakes possibly felt from nearby countries:

05/02/24 15:44:0012.45N143.15E10.0 4.4GUAM REGION
05/02/24 03:39:1841.41N126.64W10.0 4.3OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
05/02/24 02:36:3954.40N161.85W16.0 4.5ALASKA PENINSULA
05/02/23 14:22:4439.26N76.59W9.0 2.1CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION
05/02/23 09:04:0518.56N145.34E592.6 4.7PAGAN REG., N. MARIANA ISLANDS
05/02/22 19:15:5125.83N109.90W10.0 5.5GULF OF CALIFORNIA
05/02/22 06:47:1240.51N125.79W10.0 3.3OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
05/02/22 01:50:0640.43N126.07W10.0 3.6OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
05/02/21 15:35:1960.07N139.38W10.0 3.9SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
05/02/21 10:11:0159.98N152.55W79.0 3.8SOUTHERN ALASKA
05/02/21 02:31:1918.32N145.46E455.9 4.0PAGAN REGION, NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
05/02/20 18:36:3655.98N153.18W19.0 4.6SOUTH OF ALASKA
05/02/20 10:00:1637.47N118.85W6.8 3.3CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
05/02/20 03:47:2518.88N145.45E211.6 4.0PAGAN REGION, NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
05/02/19 22:06:0637.76N115.18W0.0 3.0NEVADA
05/02/19 10:17:2038.04N118.59W8.2 3.6NEVADA
05/02/19 05:56:2952.49N174.80E124.7 4.7NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
05/02/18 14:21:5534.12N81.11W0.0 2.9SOUTH CAROLINA
05/02/18 10:33:4251.31N178.85W57.8 5.2ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
05/02/18 10:06:1951.31N178.92W52.2 5.0ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
05/02/17 03:12:4443.72N111.14W5.0 2.9SOUTHERN IDAHO
05/02/17 01:57:0061.32N149.85W29.6 3.8SOUTHERN ALASKA


SUN

Sunspot numbers, daily for the past week:
2/16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
61 51 46 51 60 33 23 54
Planetary daily geomagnetic A Index with its consecutive Kp's in UTC
2/16 13 2 1 2 4 4 3 3 3
2/17 6 1 2 0 1 2 2 2 3
2/18 25 5 4 4 3 4 4 3 2
2/19 14 1 2 3 4 4 3 3 2
2/20 12 4 3 3 0 2 3 2 2
2/21 8 3 3 1 2 1 2 1 2
2/22 4 1 1 0 0 1 2 2 1
2/23 4 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1





Solar data from http://www.sec.noaa.gov/



SPECIAL NOTE



New Ice Age Colder and Drier?



This abstract from the Rand Corporation is about a complex computer simulation of the Ice Age environment:

http://ams.allenpress.com/amsonline/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F1520-0469(1976)033%3C1844:TNSOIA%3E2.0.CO%3B2 (may not be available)

The average July temperature is 5.8 degrees C. cooler over ice free continents, and the July precipitation is 20% lower in the Northern Hemisphere. (Ed. note: That sounds significantly volcanic.)

Here's the latest by one author:

http://www.iceagenow.com/



Comments or questions are welcome.



Donald J. Boon, editor.