Does anyone know who set up the parameters necessary to accomplish a successful earthquake prediction? If so, who was it and when was this done? Has anyone embellished upon it since its original development?

In addition I would like someone to explain why a Level A alert for Parkfield was set at a 37% probability in 72 hours? A Level A alert requires approval from the OES to deliver it to the public and there is scarely more than a 30% chance of an earthquake occurring. This is confusing. Its would be like saving to the locals, "Look, I'm warning you that an earthquake may arrive in the next 72 hours, but don't worry about it, because the probability is very low."

Science sometimes is confusing.

Petra