John,

No. First what I was addressing is that is it because he is a seismologist that it affords him the ability to address foreign governments regarding possible earthquakes without going through diplomatic channels in the US first? Does he have diplomatic magnanimity?

Of course large aftershocks are expected, but I think in discussion previously there is only about a 5% risk of a magnitude equal or larger than the initial quake within 24 hours, if that is correct. Its a very small figure.

But I am totally unaware of another area that would be close by an area that had a large/great earthquake in history where it slipped within 30 days of the initial large/great quake. Or am I wrong? Surely it could happen in as little as a few months, but I think that is highly unusual. So what is driving him to think otherwise? There's a reason, I'm sure.

Thanks,

Petra