Perhaps people should generally accompany their predictions with what physical measurements they are based on, and are not based on. The scientists should hold themselves to higher standards, especially now that there are established and practised methods of posing predictions to the community.

It would be a pity if the Indians evacuated based on a groundless prediction, but at some level they need to get their act together to vet their sources, you can find any prediction you want to hear somewhere. Jim Berkland's site probably has a continuous stream of predictions on some of his boards.