Map on front page of New York Times is wrong
Posted by chris in suburbia on December 27, 2004 at 13:37:33:

The big map on the front page of today's New York Times is wrong on the travel times of the tsunami...by a lot. The map I linked to yesterday would be more likely to be correct. The link below is to equations for the velocity of shallow water waves-I used the approximation in eq. 2.9. Tsunamis are shallow water waves even in the deep ocean basins. I think that if somehow you got a short period tsunami that was not a shallow water wave, it would travel less fast than a long-period shallow water wave (someone can check that). The map in the New York Times shows that the tsunami would arrive at Mogadishu, Somalia in 6 hours. On page 17 of the .pdf document that I linked to yesterday are travel times from Pariaman, Indonesia, just 1/2 hour away from Dec 26 epicenter for a tsunami. This shows the travel time to Somalia at about 9 hours. Using the equation, and the distance from Dec 26 epicenter to Mogadishu of 5500+ km, and a water depth of 5000 m...velocity would be (sqrt(9.81 m/ss*5000m)=232 m/s*3600 s/hr=836 km/hr.
5500 km/836 km/hr=6.6 hrs. So, by this, it would sound like the New York Times would be closer. But, it is not...because 5000 m is the very deepest part of the Indian Ocean....you have to cross a spreading center at 2 to 3 km depth....and there are shallow plateaus and ridges. I'd guess from looking at our 1980 Atlas that the average depth along the path was less than 4 km..For 4000m, the velocity of a shallow water wave would be 713 km/hr...and the time would be 7.7 hours. For 3000 m average depth, 617 km/hr and 8.9 hours. Unless I am fouling up the equation, or I have the wrong equation, the New York Times is wrong. Of course, the best way to check this is to check the actual arrival time of the tsunami. Anyone?
Chris



Follow Ups:
     ● French news says 30k missing - chris in suburbia  17:11:47 - 12/27/2004  (24035)  (0)
     ● CNN meteorologist finally gets it right, but everyone still missing the point - chris in suburbia  13:55:47 - 12/27/2004  (24028)  (1)
        ● another NY Times error - chris in suburbia  09:37:42 - 12/28/2004  (24052)  (0)