Cathryn,

Don has been taking your reports and looking at previous reports to try and make some kind of assessment as to what your ear tones mean. So far, he has not found your pattern to match ours.

However, that may be due to exactly what you posted above. The three of us in the group do not use the trailing sound and haven't been using it for more than a year. I think two years is closer. It makes a huge difference. We also do not understand what it is, or why it happens. Seems so far to be a useless piece of some unknown element. We may never know.

If your prior report of the very long ear tone which should have been for very southern BAJA had trailing included, its possible by having removed it, the 4.5 quake which occurred around Bahia may well have been a match for that tone. But its to late for analysis.

The primary reason our ear tone work is being done behind the scenes is to come to some kind of understanding of the phenomena and if we feel we have something we can be fairly sure is correct, then we are in a position to post something that is of value. Value equals, date (window) place and potential magnitude; based upon a method that can be cited time and again.

Currently as you are aware we have a huge backup of 6 to 8 second ear tones. None of them are producing matching earthquakes, so no predictions have been issued using any of them. Does that mean the method does not work? No. This phenomena has occurred before, but for an area in Southern, CA at 10 seconds. No quakes arrived there for a long time and suddenly it happened. The North Coast around Petrolia at some future date is going to rock, but its in the formative stages right now. I'd love to know if a slow earthquake (asesimic slip) is occurring and we are unaware of it. Could be.

My best guess for your ear tone at 12 seconds would be off shore of Oregon where the last 4.5's occurred. But that's not difinitive because we don't have any prior material to work with. So we'll see. I hope you hit it.

As a side note, an important side note, Don had his sorry a.s taken to the hospital emergency room this morning. He either has the flu or bronkitis. He's home now, trying to rest, but not doing well at it. Send him some healing energy. He needs it.

Petra