Hi All. Here it is. It’s 10/23/04 and my earthquake hasn’t occurred yet. Not even the increase in activity. Unless something happens soon it will be another bust.

There is however one little quake that caught my eye. This is the 1.7ML, 6 miles west of Dixon that is if it remains on the map as a quake. This is very close to one of the areas I chose not to use because the criteria used weren’t met.

I did a search for past quake using a very tight radius to keep from getting a lot of the quakes that have occurred further to the west of this quake. This quake is in the area of the Great Valley Thrust Fault and yes Cathryn you did indeed ask me about this fault last night when we talked on the phone and yes it was before the quake was posted. I’m not sure as to how close this is to the 1892 quake that occurred in the area, but I’m fairly sure it has to been pretty close. As you can see the area is fairly active and in that respect I don’t think this is a precursor to something much larger. If nothing else it’s just another popcorn quake that occurs in the area from time to time. However I will go back through my data and see if there was, or is anything there that I could have missed, or find that the data I use has nothing to do with this quake. Due to the lack of activity I was expecting to see I would have to say that the data I use has nothing to do with any of the quakes, as there hasn’t been an increase over the amount we normally see. In other words, a bust.

I suppose I could go back to my original forecast, but that would be making the data fit the quake. The quake has to fit the data, or it isn’t any good. Anyway there are still two days left and the quake, or quakes have to fit the current forecast. Take Care…Don in creepy town

catalog=ANSS
start_time=1898/01/01,00:00:00
end_time=2004/10/23,09:04:58
minimum_magnitude=0.1
maximum_magnitude=10
event_type=E
delta=0 km to 08 km from (38.446,-121.931)
Date Time Lat Lon Depth Mag Magt Nst Gap Clo RMS SRC Event ID
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1945/08/29 19:40:07.00 38.4800 -121.9300 3.60 ML BK
1945/09/16 23:55:35.00 38.4800 -122.0000 3.30 ML BK
1945/09/21 00:28:23.00 38.4700 -121.8700 2.90 ML BK
1945/10/11 20:37:40.00 38.4800 -121.9200 3.20 ML BK
1956/11/03 09:00:30.00 38.4000 -122.0000 2.60 ML BK
1974/04/23 23:08:26.17 38.4008 -121.9245 5.51 1.78 Md 5 320 12 0.00 NC -1019415
1982/02/04 06:34:54.19 38.3763 -121.9440 5.11 1.41 Md 6 186 11 0.13 NC -1071818
1982/02/05 14:06:23.01 38.4615 -121.9075 11.95 1.97 Md 11 165 14 0.13 NC -1071838
1984/06/02 21:07:01.87 38.4405 -121.8482 23.89 1.89 Md 8 241 39 0.14 NC -1116124
1988/09/23 06:51:43.62 38.4885 -121.9450 10.89 1.36 Md 6 199 29 0.01 NC 124187
1988/11/01 21:02:32.81 38.5093 -121.9495 16.23 1.92 Md 12 132 6 0.38 NC 126199
1990/03/05 13:42:13.22 38.4040 -121.9468 15.21 1.11 Md 6 272 7 0.10 NC -1173105
1990/07/02 22:20:22.20 38.4520 -122.0180 2.00 2.90 un 7 0.00 BRK 199007024044
1994/11/01 04:22:45.81 38.4053 -121.9755 5.46 1.83 Md 7 147 6 0.06 NC -1216872
1995/11/23 14:36:03.44 38.4643 -121.9317 16.39 1.29 Md 6 159 3 0.03 NC 30090418
1995/11/23 14:38:31.93 38.4647 -121.9403 19.02 1.58 Md 10 156 3 0.06 NC 30090419
1995/11/23 17:02:15.75 38.4652 -121.9305 16.36 1.05 Md 6 250 4 0.02 NC 30090432
1995/12/06 01:22:46.51 38.4982 -121.9230 8.67 0.92 Md 4 224 6 0.15 NC 30091354
2002/07/03 13:25:50.54 38.4678 -121.9678 6.46 1.99 Md 5 214 80 0.21 NC 51120072
2002/10/06 15:33:22.32 38.4783 -121.9963 0.03 1.90 Md 18 120 3 0.25 NC 21248614
2002/10/06 16:42:26.81 38.4708 -121.9987 0.03 1.33 Md 9 107 3 0.25 NC 21248617
2002/10/07 18:04:11.12 38.4555 -121.9337 3.66 1.42 Md 12 230 3 0.18 NC 21248674
2002/10/08 02:16:49.74 38.4740 -121.9992 0.34 1.21 Md 10 108 3 0.23 NC 21248702
2002/10/31 16:25:00.87 38.4775 -121.9195 4.08 1.98 Md 6 232 76 0.31 NC 51122900