Re: Bay Area Earthquake Forecast Update
Posted by chris in suburbia on October 16, 2004 at 05:04:24:

Good morning Don....Can you say whether or not you are using the "data"? Forecasts...or is the correct term for 1 week windows "predictions?", are more interesting if we know what they are based on....Petra's eartones, Tim's ESP or whatever....Anyone know how Geoforecaster is doing? Either as a business, or with clear successes on predictions? My California quake of the day is a 3.4 east of Ojai, that occurred near the surface trace of the N-dipping San Cayetano fault...which is one of the most active faults in southern California...it is a thrust/reverse fault...linked but not the same as the fault that had the 1971 San Fernando quake, Trenching by Rockwell, Dolan and others show that the San Cayetano had a surface rupture in the last 300 or 400 years...they think it could have been the 1812 earthquake that caused damage in Santa Barbara, Lompoc, etc, and probably had a tsunami. I tend to have doubts about it being 1812...in part because of oral histories from Santa Rosa Island...
Oh, yeah...maybe no one will read this far down...I made a vague prediction that there might be a quake following the Kern count M5 and Parkfield in the northern Mojave...I missed that...there were some quake up to 2.4 near Boron, but I still definitely missed...
Chris