Hi All. I have a feeling this is going to be a long night so I thought I would see what kind of trouble I could stir up. Kind of like an Irish stew thing. A little bit of this and a little bit of that.

As most of you already know there is a report out stating that the Bay Area could have a large quake occur between now and 2030. The report was compiled by a group of scientists known as a "working group" or "WG99," comprised of more than 70 geologists, seismologists, geophysicists and statisticians. Dr. David Schwartz, a USGS geologist who heads that agency’s San Francisco Bay Area Earthquake Hazards Project, chaired the group.

Schwartz pointed out that there is also an 80 percent chance of one or more magnitude 6 to 6.7 earthquakes before 2030. "While magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquakes can cause damage throughout the Bay region, these smaller quakes, centered in urbanized areas, could also cause serious damage."

While talking with some seismologist and some construction people I learned that some of the older buildings in San Francisco that were built after the 1906 quake don’t even match the building codes that were in place at the time of the quake. The codes were relaxed, or completely ignored in order to reconstruct the city in the fastest possible time. Those buildings are still standing and in use today.

About 2 years ago I talked to some emergency aid personal, who wished to remain anonymous told me the city and the people in general are not ready for a major quake. It was something on the order of about 40% being ready. In a survey of single-family homes in 17 Bay Area communities, ABAG found that few homeowners are retrofitting and those who are tend to have college degrees and higher incomes.

Yet the report also noted that many homeowners who think they have completed a seismic upgrade have not done an adequate job of bolting their foundations and bracing their cripple walls with plywood.

Although Berkeley has the Bay Area's highest retrofit rate of homes at 38 percent, a result largely of a host of city-sponsored financial incentives, 44 percent of the city's homeowners have done only partial work.

Los Gatos has the second best record, with 20 percent of its homes earthquake-resistant.

The cities of Santa Clara and Napa placed last in the survey, with only 3 percent of their homeowners having performed adequate retrofitting.

Most of the people that I have talked to who live where I live told me that they don’t even think about the next major quake. That have enough problems that need to be taken care of now, such as paying the rent on their mobile home space, and paying for the medications they need each month. That can’t be bothered with a quake that may not even occur in their lifetime. Besides we survived the Loma Prieta quake with little to no preparation for it so why should we bother for the next one that may not occur while were still alive. I have a hard time arguing with that kind of logic, but I still try.

Hope I’m not boring you. Take Care…Don in creepy town