Hi Kiddo. As Dr. Keilis-Borok told you.

“You are right about our experiments in advance prediction: We do expect that some of our predictions will be wrong; and we also expect that many will be correct. We will learn from our mistakes; indeed, we learn more from our mistakes than from our successes. Regards, V. Keilis-Borok”

One of the secrets in learning from our mistakes is that one recognizes them and admits to them. Without that nothing is learned. Over the years all one ever heard was the earthquake prediction was impossible. There is no doubt in my mind that there are many who believe that statement.

We also have the other side of the coin. There are those who have tried to predict earthquakes. They are people from all walks of life. Some were charlatans, some were frauds and there were those who were sincere in what they said. However they were still wrong.

It just may be that this is why there wasn’t a panic as many thought there would be. They have heard it all before and felt this prediction wasn’t going to be any different then any of the others. Still there were a good many of them who did prepare for the quake that they felt might never occur. In that respect the prediction indeed was a success. I really and truly hope that they did believe there was going to be a quake knowing full well that 50/50 chance was a far cry from saying that the quake was indeed going to occur. It was just a matter of time and indeed it is still just a matter of time. I could occur tomorrow, nest week, or next year. No one at present time really knows exactly when it will occur, but occur it will.

There was a time when I believed that earthquake prediction was the way to go, but now I’m not so sure. We can get the people out of the way, but we can’t get homes, workplaces, dams, roads, bridges, power plants, etc out of the way. It seems to me it would be more cost affective to spend the time, energy and money on research on how to build things to withstand the largest quake that could be expected to occur in any given area.

This isn’t so say that earthquake prediction shouldn’t be sought after. You still have to know where the large quakes can occur and if there is sufficient time to prepare for them. Retrofitting was a week away from being started on the Cypress Freeway. Had they known when the quake was going to occur it could have been one of the first for retrofitting instead of waiting as long as they did to perform the task. The same thing could be said for the building that took the lives of two people during the San Simeon quake.

Everyday that goes by without the quake occurring means it is just one day closer to when it will occur. You and I have learned from the people that we have talked to that we are not ready for that quake. There is still a long ways to go before we will be. Take Care…Cowboy