A research version of my Earthquake and Tornado Data Evaluation Perl language computer program just got running. This is a phenomenally powerful version of that program which is designed to process and display the EM signal – Earthquake matching data in such a manner that it can be effectively evaluated. The goal is to learn how to process them so that high accuracy forecasts can be generated. It appears that the way to do that is to compare EM signal – Earthquake match data for different time windows. When you see the numbers starting to go up for a particular earthquake you can then check that area for signs of possible seismic activity.

The time windows that I am presently working with are about 3 months long. The previous version of the program could process data for just one time window at a time. Then I had to combine data for different time windows using other programs. That was a time consuming process. And the data were difficult to interpret. This latest version can simultaneously process and display data for multiple time windows using a variety of formats.

This is the first version of this newest generation of these programs. The one that I would eventually like get developed will probably take another 40 hours or so of programming time to produce. In the mean time this one should do nicely.

The following are the types of data that it is presently generating. They are variations of the Pa: and Pd: data which can be seen on my Data.html Web page.
 LON LAT  3Par  o   n  2Par 
o   n  1Par  o   n    3Pdr 
o   n  2Pdr  o   n  1Pdr  o  
n   angle  date    mag D  eql  gl 
ml  ci  la  sa  Earthquake Data



-116  33   94: 94: 94:  80: 87: 95: 
32: 37: 56:      :   :   :   
:   :   :    :   :  
:   -22 02/11/03  3.1     26  33 
38   8  82  34  2002/11/03  06:58:42 33.16N
115.64W 2.2 3.1   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

-116  34   85: 85: 85:  59: 64: 70: 
26: 31: 47:    88: 88: 88:  61: 66: 73:  27: 33:
48:   -28 92/06/28  7.6 1   26  20  28  
0  67  21  1992/06/28  11:57:34 34.20N 116.40W 1.0 7.6

-118  34   75: 75: 75:  55: 59: 65: 
24: 28: 42:    78: 78: 78:  57: 62: 68:  25: 30:
44:  -164 91/06/28  5.8 1   28  12  23 
88  72  29  1991/06/28  14:43:54 34.26N 118.00W 11.0
5.8

-119  34   94: 94: 94:  85: 92:102: 
52: 62: 93:      :   :   :   
:   :   :    :   :  
:    65 94/01/17  5.0     29 
52  36  22   1  52  1994/01/17  12:39:39
34.26N 118.50W 14.0 5.0

-119  34   92: 92: 92:  84: 91:100: 
51: 61: 90:    96: 96: 96:  87: 95:104:  53: 64:
94:    64 94/01/17  6.7 2   29  50 
34  20  89  50  1994 Jan 17 12:30:55  34.213 118.53W 
186.4 6.8 Northridge SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

-119  38   95: 95: 95:  86: 93:102: 
53: 63: 93:      :   :   :   
:   :   :    :   :  
:    62 90/10/24  5.7     29 
52  34  26   4  55  1990/10/24  06:15:20
38.05N 119.10W 12.0 5.7

-119  -7   96: 96: 96:  88: 96:105: 
57: 68:102:      :   :   :   
:   :   :    :   :  
:  -149 90/06/11  5.2     29  33 
52  35  16  63  1990/06/11  05:43:03 7.40S 118.70W
33.0 5.2

-121  36   96: 96: 96:  87: 94:103: 
36: 43: 64:      :   :   :   
:   :   :    :   :  
:    -6 03/12/23  4.2     31 
36  37  12  83  36  2003/12/23  02:06:55 35.69N
121.11W 6.0 4.2 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

-121  36   95: 95: 95:  86: 93:102: 
36: 42: 63:      :   :   :   
:   :   :    :   :  
:    -9 03/12/22  4.6     31 
35  38  12  82  36  2003/12/22  19:53:29 35.65N
121.05W 4.5 4.6 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

-121  36   96: 96: 96:  77: 83: 92: 
30: 36: 54:      :   :   :   
:   :   :    :   :  
:    -9 03/12/22  4.4     31 
29  32   6  77  30  2003/12/22  19:30:09
35.65N 121.03W 8.0 4.4 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

-121  36   94: 94: 94:  73: 80: 88: 
30: 35: 52:      :   :   :   
:   :   :    :   :  
:    -9 03/12/22  4.7     31 
28  31   5  76  30  2003/12/22  19:26:07
35.65N 121.05W 3.0 4.7 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

-121  36   89: 89: 89:  66: 72: 79: 
28: 33: 49:    92: 92: 92:  68: 74: 81:  29: 35:
51:   -10 03/12/22  6.5 1   31  26  29  
3  73  27  2003/12/22  19:15:56 35.71N 121.10W 7.6 6.5
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

-121  37   95: 95: 95:  76: 83: 91: 
30: 35: 52:      :   :   :   
:   :   :    :   :  
:   157 02/05/24  3.8     31  33 
20  79  62  15  2002/05/24  17:44:01 36.55N 121.13W
2.2 3.8   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

-121  40   95: 95: 95:  85: 92:102: 
56: 66: 98:      :   :   :   
:   :   :    :   :  
:  -107 01/08/10  5.5     31  31 
53  43  19  67  2001/08/10  20:19:26 39.83N 120.63W
14.5 5.5   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

-122 -56   94: 94: 94:  76: 82: 91:  30:
35: 52:      :   :   :   
:   :   :    :   :  
:   164 95/09/08  5.9     32  33 
23  82  66  19  1995/09/08  00:27:48 56.20S 122.20W
10.0 5.9

-122  42   72: 72: 72:  62: 67: 74: 
40: 48: 71:    74: 74: 74:  64: 70: 77:  42: 50:
74:    70 93/09/21  6.0 1   32  
5  76  69  41   2  1993/09/21  03:28:55
42.31N 122.00W 10.0 6.0

-122  37   92: 92: 92:  79: 86: 94: 
54: 64: 96:    96: 96: 96:  82: 89: 97:  56: 68:
99:  -136 89/10/18  7.1 2   32  27  51 
72  18  65  1989/10/18  00:04:15 37.03N 121.88W 19.0
7.1 A  SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA

-123  49   94: 94: 94:  84: 92:101: 
58: 68:102:      :   :   :   
:   :   :    :   :  
:   -60 01/11/10  3.4     33  52 
66  49  13  55  2001/11/10  18:30:59 48.92N 123.04W
16.6 3.4   VANCOUVER ISL, CANADA

-123  47   94: 94: 94:  85: 92:101: 
54: 64: 96:      :   :   :   
:   :   :    :   :  
:  -129 01/06/10  5.0     33  32 
55  42  20  71  2001/06/10  13:19:10 47.26N 123.40W
48.2 5.0 A  WASHINGTON

-124  47   94: 94: 94:  85: 92:102: 
54: 64: 96:      :   :   :   
:   :   :    :   :  
:  -129 01/06/10  5.0     34  32 
55  42  20  71  2001/06/10  13:19:11 47.17N 123.50W
40.0 5.0

-125  41   96: 96: 96:  89: 96:106: 
58: 69:103:      :   :   :   
:   :   :    :   :  
:  -128 01/01/13  5.6     35  31 
52  41  18  64  2001/01/13  13:08:42 40.74N 125.20W
5.0 5.6  MwHRV   4F.G .......      

-129 -55   97: 97: 97:  88: 95:104:  37:
43: 65:      :   :   :   
:   :   :    :   :  
:  -178 03/04/16  5.0     39  34 
35   9  83  36  2003/04/16  20:24:33 55.36S
128.80W 10.0 5.0
(I hope that the table displayed properly)

Those are data for the destructive December 22, 2003 earthquake in California. The 3P… data are for a three month time window ending December 30. 2P are for a window ending November 30. 1P are for a window ending October 30.

The three groups of 3 columns on left the involve EM signal – Earthquake comparisons involving all 5.0 and greater magnitudes which occurred since the beginning of 1990. the three groups of 3 columns to the right of that have entries in them if the listed earthquake produced 1 or more fatalities. And those comparisons are just for those types of destructive earthquakes in my database file.

The three 3P columns in the left group and the right group are references. The other two groups of 3 are compared with them. By examining those numbers you can see how well each of the listed earthquakes performed as an indicator that the California earthquake was approaching. If they go up as you move to the left then they were probably showing that it was approaching. Ones which had values which did not change might eventually serve as “baseline” type data.

It would be too difficult to explain here what the numbers in each of the 3 columns in each group represent. But briefly, they involve different ways of processing the data to see if there are any biases etc. For example, in one time window there might be 100 EM signals. And in another there might be 150 signals. The data show for example what impact differences such as that can have on the final results.

Something that I have been saying is that the work that I am doing is in some ways perhaps 2 generations more advanced than what many or most other researchers working with EM signal data are doing. And now that this latest program is running that lead might have jumped to 3 generations. Assuming that my data are actually indicating when destructive and especially powerful earthquakes are likely to occur around the world then I would say that getting an effective forecasting program running could now be just a matter of how much time is available to evaluate those data. This is presently largely a very serious “hobby” type project. And it is difficult to project what type of progress will be made. It will probably depend upon how much time I can get free to do the work.

These are personal opinions.