that prediction missed, and didn't use orbital data
Posted by John Vidale on August 09, 2004 at 17:03:02:

Your post says "Iran areas and also some Afghanistan areas". The quake struck the farthest part of
Afghanistan from Iran, more than 800 km away. It also says if your quake strikes a rural area,
as it did with 5000 casualties, it would be 6.1 to 6.5, but the real quake was bigger, M6.6.
I suppose you'll counter that it was in a mountainous area, but most all of Afghanistan is mountainous.

To further undercut your citing of this to lend credence to your web page, the prediction clearly
says "Detection Method: Human earthquake sensitivity", which logically means NOT from your orbit and solar flare curves.

You've found the problem with being specific; if you define a method, area, and magnitude range, it is simple to separate hits from misses.

John

POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE WARNING
From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com
Date: May 27, 1998 (98/05/27 13:15:00 UTC)
Posted to: sci.geo.earthquakes and fj.disaster.earthquake

Data For This Expected Earthquake

Time Window: 5/26/98 to 5/30/98
Location: I am primarily watching Iran areas
and also some Afghanistan areas
Detection Method: Human earthquake sensitivity
Magnitude: 5.1 to 6.1 for URBAN, densely populated
areas such as cities
6.1 to 6.5 for RURAL areas where there
are scattered villages
6.5 and up for REMOTE areas, mountains,
deserts, in the ocean

All of the information in this notice represents
expressions of personal opinion.

Additional recommendations, explanations, and advisory updates
etc. can be found in my Earthquake Alert Page at address (URL):


Follow Ups:
     ● Willing to play devil's advocate - Cathryn  17:59:43 - 8/9/2004  (22409)  (0)
     ● Re: that prediction missed, and didn't use orbital data - Cathryn  17:36:23 - 8/9/2004  (22406)  (1)
        ● google "groups" - John Vidale  17:44:49 - 8/9/2004  (22407)  (1)
           ● I meant button, of course (nm) - John Vidale  17:45:51 - 8/9/2004  (22408)  (1)
              ● Re: I meant button, of course (nm) - Cathryn  18:38:02 - 8/9/2004  (22412)  (0)